 Q&A: Steven Ambrose
Owner of World Wide Worx Strategy
Q: What do you think about Telkom’s new 10Mbps ADSL offering and how will this affect consumers?
A: The Telkom upgrade is long overdue as the top speed of broadband access has lagged international and even some African standards for a few years now. As the usage of video and other more bandwidth-intensive applications explodes across the internet globally, SA must keep in step in upgrading the overall broadband speeds. So it’s a much-needed upgrade and will benefit small business far more than consumers as the majority of ADSL lines are connecting SMEs and not consumers, who are increasingly abandoning their fixed lines for mobile phones and mobile internet access.
Q: Are the price drops in broadband connectivity really giving more people access to the net, especially the poor, or is it just the same as before, with the connected simply getting more for their money?
A: The current price drops are all access layer independent bandwidth costs. The actual cost of access to the internet infrastructure has not dropped for the last three years and has, in fact, gone up, especially with regard to ADSL, with Telkom instillation and monthly charges increasing. The cost of mobile broadband is still relatively high, though more manageable for most consumers, as it is an on-demand service, and costs can be controlled far more than fixed access costs. The whole business model of broadband access militates against broader penetration for the market, so currently, while there is still growth, the haves are having it faster and faster, and the have nots are not getting any closer.
Q: In your opinion, will SA ever be on par with countries like the US, the UK and other European countries in terms of broadband?
A: There is very little chance of SA and Africa catching up to the depth and breadth of penetration in First World economies such as the US and the UK. The reasons are both social and economic. Our populations are still strongly rural and our distances are far between city centres. The pace of development has been explosive, especially in mobile penetration, however mobile voice communication does not easily or inexpensively translate into broadband access, and the infrastructure and access layers do not exist for much of Africa. It will take time, probably ten years for penetration rates over 50%. By then, who can predict where the developed nations will be in their speed and access to the internet? That being said, urban South Africa will eventually reach the same level as much of the developed world as technology continues to get cheaper and more innovative.
Q: What are your thoughts on 4G and WiMax and what it will offer the average person?
A: High-speed wireless broadband will play an increasingly important role for most consumers as it’s rolled out over the next five to ten years. The trend is for ubiquitous access to all the same services and functionality while you are mobile, that you currently have with fixed broadband networks at the home and the office. Access devices, to the internet, will become faster, lighter and much more portable, with a big focus on touch and voice interactivity. 4G wireless systems, of which WiMax is one and LTE another, will dominate all communication, including voice calls, which will be IP- (Internet Protocol) based. For most consumers, the changeover will be rather seamless, with devices such as the Apple iPad and smartphones leading the way. All of us will look back in five years and wonder how we managed without our fast, secure, and mobile access, to every system and the data we have at the office and at home, while we are on the road or, in fact, anywhere on the planet.
Q: Do you think the traditional home phone (fixed line) will ever be completely replaced by VOIP communication or simply using a cellphone for voice calls?
A: All communication is going digital, from TV, to voice calls, to even the movies you see in theatres on the big screen. As the access networks evolve, and Telkom, Neotel and all the other telecommunication players both in SA and the world roll out their next generation networks, all the data will be fully digital and IP-based. VOIP will completely dominate the fixed line space. The trend here is for fibre access to the home and office with high-speed 4G wireless networks out on the road. All these are IP-based, and VOIP will be the only way to make voice calls. But, this will take a number of years to roll out, especially in some more rural areas. Technology will accelerate this conversion as older analogue technologies become too expensive to maintain and newer IP-based digital technologies become cheap, ubiquitous and pervasive. Wireless fixed access replacement will continue to be an attractive option in rural and other areas with low infrastructure development. There are inherent limitations currently to mobile based networks that make fixed fibre access both faster and cheaper. |
